Just like in political journalism, there is a silly season in tech too.
This is the time of year when the final blueprints for the new iPhone are delivered to the manufacturing campuses on southern China and the rumour mill cranks into overdrive.
All buzz and no bite
It is a truly pointless endeavour. Apple operates its business on a need to know basis; anyone who makes peripherals or accessories for the phone will have the specs they need in a timely fashion. Really it serves only Apple, by giving them their dose of annual free marketing.
Still, there is a big buzz this year about them increasing the screen size again to meet the insatiable appetite for phones you can’t hold. It would, as it happens, be a significant matter.
Screen is a significant contributor to the production cost of the phone so either Apple has to raise prices or its margins will suffer. Judging by the stock price of late the market thinks it will be successful with the former.
Making contact
Nevertheless, there is a smaller debate about the inclusion of NFC on the latest iPhone, and yet its implications could have a much bigger impact.
In fact it has been seen as a fait accompli for six months or so now. The story goes that the issue to date has been the quality of signal between the handset and the receiver. iPhone 6 will feature an antenna booster to lay this to rest.
All highly plausible. If nothing else Apple sets great store by its user experience. But the veracity of it is another matter, and one has to question whether Apple really has any desire to support NFC at all.
NFC, I’m sure no-one needs reminding, is the type of technology that powers the oyster card and the contactless card you use to buy your Pret sandwich at lunchtime.
Except it’s not contactless is it? By any stretch. I was reminded of this at the weekend thanks to a drole tweet from a friend.
“Contactless payment on your card?” “Yes” “Press it against the screen” “Not really contactless, is it?” “…” “…” “Just press it”
— James Martin (@Pundamentalism) May 22, 2014
I happen to think Apple are amongst a group who see a better way, meaning true contactless payments.
Hailo but indoors
During their developer conference next week Apple will issue reference designs for the iBeacon technology, a major milestone.
With iBeacons dotted around the place your phone will know when you are in a store and, no doubt after some fiddling initially, you can pay via your phone through credit card details stored in the cloud. Like Hailo but indoors.
In the future-future you may not even need to reach for the device at all, and the ugly point-of-sale systems could become a historical relic.
What’s the point?
It is tempting to ask, so what? Payment cards work incredibly well, as do entry systems for your place of work, gym, and the tube.
This is true in a wider sense. The smartphone is a revolution, no doubt. But New York magazine has questioned the efficacy of innovation taking place at the hands of the mobile phone. Do we really need to use a smartphone to arrange dry-cleaning (along with free cookie)?
At a minimum it has profound effects for many companies. The payment terminal business, for example, is a $6 billion global duopoly that could become obsolete.
Indeed, the world’s most successful mobile payments system to date is Kenya’s SMS-based MPESA. Fully 31% of Kenyan GDP is spent via the system. You would think this considerably reduces the need for £2,000-plus POS systems.
So Apple’s decision on NFC could be significant. It might not end poverty, but that’s the trouble with innovation, you never know what will.